By Dismas Nuwaine
On a quiet, non-assuming Saturday morning, the 28th of February, in Tehran, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, walked into what was supposed to be just another meeting with a significant portion of Iran’s leadership.
Unknown to him, at around 6a.m. local time, Israeli jets numbering about 200, armed with long range high precision missiles, took off from bases inside Israel, beginning a 1,500-kilometre journey to strike deep into the heart of his country.
At around 9:45 a.m. Iran Standard Time (IRST), the jets launched coordinated strikes on more than 500 targets, including the heavily fortified compound of the supreme leader located in central Tehran, in what is now the largest flyover in military history. As the dust settled and rumours spread, it became clear that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the second of only two Ayatollahs, who has led the Islamic Republic for the past 37 years after succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1987, had died.
The successful targeting of the Ayatollah and his close associates suggests the extent of likely Israeli and US constant monitoring of Iranian communications by Mossad and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Today, almost two weeks later, the opposite sides continue to trade blows. The U.S. and Israel have so far carried out more than 2,000 strikes across a dozen cities within Iran, which has launched thousands of drones and ballistic missiles at American and Israeli interests in the region.
Trump says there are four major objectives for this assault, amongst others the dismantling of the Iranian Navy and missile capabilities, and preventing nuclear armament — the latter has been a major sticking point between US–Iran relations.
Prelude to the current conflict
The beginnings of this particular conflict began last year, when Israel declared Operation Rising Lion, an operation meant to destroy Iran’s nuclear power. 10 years earlier, in July 2015, Iran and six world powers, had reached a major diplomatic agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was administered by the Obama Administration. The deal was intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons by placing limits on its nuclear programme, while giving Iran relief from economic sanctions that had hurt its economy.
According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation estimates, Iran gained access to roughly $50 billion in previously frozen foreign assets, funds Tehran could finally spend freely on its ailing economy.
President Donald Trump however argued, that much of that money was diverted to expand Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes and bankroll its network of militant proxies and terrorist groups across the Middle East, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to militias in Yemen and Iraq.
Trump has cited this as the central reason for pulling the U.S. out of the agreement in his first presidency, in 2018 and successively imposing more sanctions on the country.
Fearing that Iran was close to making a nuclear weapon, Israel then declared Operation Rising Lion, in what became the Twelve-Day War (June 13–24, 2025). The opening “decapitation” strikes, reportedly killed close to 30 Iranian generals, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami, and nine nuclear scientists within minutes, before the Jewish state moved to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.
The conflict escalated further on June 22 when the U.S. launched Operation Midnight Hammer, using B-2 stealth bombers to strike hardened nuclear sites, before a fragile ceasefire was brokered on June 24, 2025.
The latest strikes, which dwarf the 12 days war, came after Iran and the U.S. reached a diplomatic stalemate, with talks in Oman and Switzerland failing to produce any lasting peace agreement.
Historic animosity
Looking at the last U.S. effort at regime change in Iran offers insight into the origins of Iran’s anti-western fanatic rhetoric.
Iran is a unique country in the Middle East and just like Ethiopia in Africa, it has never been colonised by any big power in the conventional sense. It has always resisted big powers. That doesn’t mean they have not tried to control it. Iran’s vast oil and natural gas wealth, resources that power industries across the world, has always made it more attractive to outside interests.
After oil was discovered in Iran in the early 20th century, Britain, the world’s superpower at the time, quickly partnered with Persia (now Iran) to exploit the oil resource. The two states formed The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) in 1909, the first company to extract oil there and was largely controlled by British interests. For decades, Britain and the AIOC made most of the money from Iranian oil. Iranians felt the country got too little in return, while foreign powers controlled their most valuable resource.
In 1941, Iran’s political climate drastically shifted after the Reza Shah was forced to abdicate the throne. The monarchy retained only a ceremonial role and the political space opened up. That opening helped the nationalist politician Mohammad Mosaddegh’s rise to be the country’s first Prime Minister. In 1951, Mossadegh had moved to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company — effectively, dealing a great blow to British oil interests. Britain responded with an oil embargo and a severe economic squeeze on Iran.
In early 1953 the U.S. government, under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, authorised the CIA to prepare a covert plan to remove Mossadegh and restore effective power to the shah. British intelligence had been pushing a similar agenda, and the two services collaborated on both the strategy and its implementation. Within no time, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah of Iran was installed as king. Iran once again became a monarchy.
The Islamic revolution
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi quickly moved to tighten his grip on power in Iran. Political opposition was limited. Critics were watched. Many were arrested or forced into exile. Power was concentrated in his hands. The secret police (SAVAK) kept a close eye on activists, students, and religious leaders. Political activities were weakened. Dissent was treated as a threat to national stability.
At the same time, wealth from oil did not reach everyone. Cities grew rich, but many rural and religious communities felt left behind. Cultural and religious tensions deepened as the Shah continued to westernise his society. By the late 1970s, anger was everywhere. Protesters filled the streets. Religious leaders, students, workers, and middle-class Iranians all joined the uprising. The pressure became unstoppable, and it eventually exploded into the 1979 revolution, ending the Shah’s rule and bringing the Ayatollahs to power for the first time in Iran.
After taking over power, and seeing Israel and America as the primary sponsors of the deposed Shah’s regime, the Ayatollah’s entrenched a radical anti-west and anti-Israel ideology, as the single unitary factor to complete the consolidation of power and transform a broad-based, multi-factional revolution into a theocratic, authoritarian Islamic Republic. It is no surprise therefore, that the Iranian regime paints Israeli and American flags on the streets for people to trample on. At every state rally, leaders and their followers chant for the “death” of these nations, calling the U.S. the “Great Satan” and Israel the “Little Satan.”
Gulf States are involved
The current conflict has involved not only Israel, the U.S. and Iran, but other states as well. Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones across the Gulf, at targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, grounding planes as a result.
These attacks have happened, and many more are anticipated, even though these nations did not officially coordinate with the US and Israel in their initial operations. They have not allowed the US and Israel to use their airspace and military bases to strike Iran.
This begs the question. Why the bombs?
Almost all of the gulf states have one important thing in common –— security guarantees from the U.S. and host U.S. military bases across 19 sites according to the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR). These amongst others include bases in Qatar, which is home to US Central Command (US-CENTCOM) and in Bahrain which is the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. Iran sees this as one of the most effective ways it can retaliate because these bases are firmly in the range of its most plentiful short-range ballistic missiles and are host to sophisticated and sensitive military hardware.
Beyond the military sites, Iran has also attacked energy and civilian facilities across the Gulf. According to some analysts, by targeting economic lifelines in the Gulf, Tehran hopes these nations will pressure Trump to end the war, fearing the cascading costs of a prolonged regional conflict. However, this could easily backfire. Nations that openly pursued neutrality, such as the UAE and Qatar, are now reconsidering their security posture. The UAE has already signaled it may move from a defensive posture to direct military strikes against Iran, stating they “cannot remain passive” after enduring over 800 missile and drone attacks.
Also, while these states previously refused to let the U.S. use their territory to launch strikes, persistent attacks on their own civilian and energy infrastructure could lead them to grant the U.S. broader access to bases and airspace.
This will serve to further isolate Iran the more.
The writer is a journalist and geopolitical analyst
