By Bill Dan Arnold Borodi
As Uganda gears up for the 2026 general elections, Mukono Municipality stands out as one of the areas that will be a critical political battleground. Incumbent Member of Parliament (MP) Bakireke Betty Nambooze, a prominent opposition figure, faces mounting challenges to her continued representation in a constituency that has long resisted the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).
Although Mukono is currently a National Unity Platform (NUP) stronghold, its status as an opposition stronghold dates to more than 15 years ago. Nambooze first captured the seat in a dramatic do or die 2010 by-election on the Democratic Party (DP) ticket, defeating NRM’s Rev Peter Bakaluba Mukasa for Mukono County then.
Her victory marked the start of sustained opposition dominance, with NUP now holding all five parliamentary seats in Mukono, consolidating the area’s anti-NRM sentiment.
“She’s a powerful leader and senior member of the party who is still on ground. The party trusts her, there is no gap for NRM,” says Phillip Kigwana, the Chairman for Nsube-Kauga NUP Party, who believes that simply holding the NUP card is enough to secure victory.
However, Nambooze’s re-election bid is far from assured. Critics argue that the ongoing national transition agenda involving General Muhoozi Kainerugaba will shape the 2026 polls beyond party lines.
“In 2026, it’s beyond just casting your vote. Those supporting the transition (Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU)) may be declared winners regardless of actual votes, especially in Buganda and I see this for Mukono,” warns Lauben Ssenyonjo the LC5 Youth Councillor Mukono District.
He also points out that the opposition’s critique of Museveni’s long tenure may be the same that is used against veteran opposition MPs like Nambooze. With Mukono’s rapid urbanisation, young voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, may seek change, expressing their frustrations through protest votes against long-serving politicians, irrespective of party.
Service delivery failures further complicate Nambooze’s prospects. The lack of a central market and inadequate road infrastructure are major grievances.
The Uganda Support to Municipal Infrastructure Development (USMID) programme (a programme designed to enhance institutional performance of Municipal Councils so as to improve urban service delivery) bypassed Mukono to Lugazi, which analysts cite as evidence of Nambooze’s waning influence in securing development projects.
Kigwana acknowledges these shortcomings. “We vote for people but after, people don’t know what to do especially with lobbying social services (emissomo),” he said. However Kigwana maintains that Nambooze remains prepared to defend her seat.
Ssenyonjo has a different view. He believes that Nambooze’s victory has been characterised by sheer luck, which she most likely has run out of.
“If you look at the previous elections in Mukono, and compare Nambooze’s total votes to next candidate Kagimu, you will see a narrow margin, in comparison to the total number garnered by NUP Flag bearer Robert Kyagulanyi and the woman MP in the Municipality,” Ssenyonjo says. It is important to note however that Nambooze’s votes doubled those of Kagimu in the 2021 elections.
During those elections, Nambooze (NUP) got 38,383 votes, Kagimu George Fred (DP) got 16,209 votes, Ssozi Abbas (NRM) 6,167 votes, Nankanja Ndagire Hadija (Ind) 457 votes, Mbogo Dunstan Eddie (FDC) 355 votes, Ninshaba Seerah (ANT) 319, Bugembe Edward Balikuddembe (Ind) 159 votes and Zirimala Fred Festo (Ind) 145 votes.
A former mayor of Mukono Municipality Kagimu seeks to throw his hat in the ring again as MP. Critics say though, that his gentle demeanour may not appeal to voters seeking a more assertive challenger. “I sense Kagimu will get fewer votes as compared to the 2021 elections,” Ssenyonjo shares.
The NRM, meanwhile, may field Daisy Sonko, hoping fresh leadership will attract those disillusioned with the status quo, or Andrew Ssenyonga, a former district LC5 chairman. If not, he might run as an Independent. His grassroots connections, especially among urban and boda-boda communities, make him a formidable contender. “Among all the candidates, Nambooze is keeping a close eye on Ssenyonga,” Ssenyonjo says.
Political parties are currently in the process of conducting primary elections in a bid to front candidates for the general elections. These elections are a precursor and tend to provide contestants an idea of what they will be up against come election 2026.
With Mukono’s growing population and a surge in first-time voters, the 2026 election promises to be fiercely competitive, shaped by shifting allegiances and the demand for tangible progress.
