By Dismas Nuwaine
Many have wondered what a Donald J. Trump victory would mean for Uganda and the continent of Africa. Trump’s new Administration has yet to outline any vision for Africa. Despite this, close analysis of his rhetoric shows there are clues that Ugandans can be cautiously optimistic that his transactional approach to foreign policy could bear some fruit for the country.
However, there’s also reason to be skeptical.
US isolationism to weaken global Hegemony
The US has since the end of the cold war walked with a superiority complex, which has informed US Foreign Policy, and has seen the country assume political and moral hegemony.
One tool the U.S. uses to police the world is the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list, which includes individuals and entities it has sanctioned. The list has grown significantly in recent years. Among those on the list are Ugandans, including the Speaker of Parliament, Anita Among, the state minister for finance, Amos Lugolobi, and four Ugandan police commanders.
However, former President Trump’s stance is different. He’s propagating an isolationist policy which will see the U.S focus more on domestic issues, like controlling the southern border and deporting illegal migrants, rather than global affairs.
Under this Trump-led approach, there may be less international scrutiny on African leaders and affairs of other countries. On one hand therefore, countries like Uganda could operate with more freedom, and less interference from the West. On the other hand, the lack of international scrutiny could lead to a rise in human rights violations, which is especially concerning as Uganda approaches its election season, where these issues could worsen without the usual international pressure, especially by the US.
Loss of humanitarian aid
One of the executive orders Trump signed on his first day in office suspended aid to “foreign countries” for review to determine if it aligns with “American interests.” If this suspension continues or becomes permanent, it could have serious long-term consequences for Uganda. A 2024 report from the U.S. Embassy in Uganda shows that U.S. humanitarian aid to the country for that fiscal year amounted to over $92 million, including $7.5 million for the Sudanese refugee response. This sudden halt in aid could signal his shift towards a more inward-focused policy. In addition to that, Trump’s plans to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) means the future of the vital support it offers Uganda for the refugee population and other areas is uncertain.
No matter the reason, the U.S. is a critical partner for Uganda in addressing global health emergencies. Losing this partnership would be a major setback for Uganda.
Homosexuality remains a taboo subject in many African communities. Despite this, the West continues to pressure African leaders to oppose the will of their own people.
This tension became clear on May 29, 2023, when Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni signed the Anti-Homosexuality Act into law. The law strained Uganda’s relations with Western countries, especially the U.S.
The toughest response came from the World Bank, which announced that it would be freezing all new public financing to Uganda.
However, this dynamic may shift. Upon starting his second term, Donald Trump signed several executive orders, one of which mandated that the U.S. recognise only two genders—male and female—in all official government documents.
This was part of his broader agenda to roll back protections for the LGBTQ+ community. On this, Trump and Museveni share a common point of interest that could serve as a starting point to strengthen bilateral relations.
Economic protectionism
Trump has openly stated his plans to impose heavy tariffs on foreign imports, backed by the creation of an External Revenue Service to collect these tariffs and other taxes from foreign nations.
The goal is to encourage Americans to buy cheaper, locally made products instead.
According to the Observatory for Economic Complexity (OEC), in October 2024, the United States exported $5.4 million to Uganda and imported $15.6 million, resulting in a trade deficit of $10.2 million.
If Uganda is cut off from the world’s largest consumer market, it could experience trade disruptions until it finds a new market.
Uganda’s future under Trump’s second presidency is uncertain, especially since his new administration has yet to outline any vision for Africa. This relationship could be marked by both potential opportunities and significant challenges, but more important is how Uganda will stand to respond to the most powerful country’s foreign policy.
The writer is a Communications practitioner and a Geopolitical analyst.
